Quick answer
HIA said on 7 October 2026 that Australia is 94,980 homes behind the National Housing Accord pace after two years. The same day, ABS data showed dwelling commencements up 7.0% to 52,201 in the June quarter 2026 (house starts up 11.6%), with 248,733 homes under construction and Victoria leading starts. For builders in VIC, QLD and NSW, that means plenty of work in progress and tight trade supply, so plan crews for the next two stages now.
Two releases on 7 October 2026 paint the clearest picture yet of where housing construction stands two years into the National Housing Accord. The Housing Industry Association (HIA) put a number on the gap: Australia is 94,980 dwellings behind the pace needed to reach 1.2 million homes. The same day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that dwelling commencements rose 7.0% in the June quarter and that 248,733 homes were under construction.
For builders, those two facts sit side by side. The country is building too few homes to meet the target, yet a very large volume of work is already in the ground and needs crews to finish it. Here is what the numbers say and what to do about labour over the next six months.
What did HIA and the ABS release in October 2026?
HIA's release, Housing target shortfall an $11 billion black hole for states and territories, uses ABS building activity data for the Accord's first two full years. HIA estimates the shortfall represents about $45 billion in economic activity that didn't happen, homes for roughly 242,160 people, and around $11 billion in forgone stamp duty and GST. HIA Managing Director Jocelyn Martin put the policy message simply: “New housing is revenue positive to government.”
The ABS Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 release gives the detail behind it. The figures below are seasonally adjusted unless noted, and the ABS flags them as preliminary.
| Measure (June quarter 2026) | Figure | Change on March quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Total dwelling commencements | 52,201 | +7.0% |
| New private house commencements | 31,707 | +11.6% |
| Other residential commencements (units, townhouses, apartments) | 19,126 | −0.1% |
| Total dwelling completions | 47,168 | +5.8% |
| Dwellings under construction (original) | 248,733 | – |
| New houses under construction (original) | 95,447 | – |
Source: ABS, Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 (released 7 October 2026). Shortfall figure: HIA (7 October 2026).
Does a shortfall mean less work for builders and trades?
No, not in the near term. A shortfall against a target is not the same as a slowdown on site. Commencements went up in the June quarter, house starts rose by more than a tenth, and completions are running below new starts. That means the pipeline of work in progress is still large and has to be staffed through framing, lock-up, fit-out and handover.
The risk is on the other side of the ledger. Industry groups say the workforce isn't keeping up. Master Builders Australia, citing NCVER data in September 2026, reported that 28,125 construction apprentices quit in the year to March 2026, slightly more than the 28,020 who completed their training over the same period. HIA's Victorian branch, responding to its Accord update on 8 October, listed a shortage of apprentices and trades among the main constraints on the state's housing delivery. When the pipeline is full and the trainee pipeline isn't growing, experienced workers get booked out first.
What does it mean for builders in Victoria, Queensland and NSW?
The ABS state figures show where new work started in the June quarter (seasonally adjusted commencements):
- Victoria: 16,239 – the most of any state. Housing work competes for labour with Big Build infrastructure such as North East Link, which the Victorian Government says will be complete in 2028.
- Queensland: 11,671 – with Brisbane 2032 now moving from planning to site works. GIICA's construction notice for Victoria Park shows early works on the Brisbane Stadium and National Aquatic Centre sites from 1 September 2026, including earthworks, utilities and demolition.
- New South Wales: 11,252 – alongside major rail work. The NSW Government awarded $11.5 billion in Sydney Metro West contracts in January 2026 covering track, systems and five underground stations.
HIA's senior economist has said NSW and Victoria could be more vulnerable to a construction slowdown because their recoveries have been more tentative. In practice, that means demand may be uneven: some builders will be flat out while others see projects pushed back. Flexible labour suits that kind of market better than a large fixed headcount.
Which roles are likely to be hardest to fill?
The mix of work in the ABS data points to where pressure will show up. Rising house starts lift demand for the early and middle stages of a build: general labourers for site set-up and clean-up, concreters and formworkers for slabs, carpenters for framing, and ticketed workers such as forklift, EWP and traffic control operators. Infrastructure projects in all three states draw on many of the same people, particularly civil crews, riggers, dogmen and traffic controllers.
What should builders do now?
- Map your next two stages. List every trade and ticket you'll need over the next eight to twelve weeks, by start date, rather than booking week to week.
- Book early for slab and frame stages. These are the stages that rising house starts put the most pressure on.
- Keep a core crew and flex around it. Use labour hire for peaks, stage changes and absences, so you are not carrying idle headcount if a project slips.
- Check tickets before day one. Ask for White Card and high-risk work licence details up front so workers can start without delays.
- Use a licensed provider. In Victoria and Queensland, labour hire providers must be licensed. Dash Group holds licences under the Labour Hire Licensing Act 2018 (Vic) and the Labour Hire Licensing Act 2017 (Qld).
How Dash Group can help
Dash Group has supplied construction and trades labour since 2018, with more than 23,400 temporary placements for over 400 businesses. Each client works with one dedicated consultant, our payroll is handled in-house, and about 3 in 10 people who apply to our job ads pass our screening. Workers are often on site within 2–4 hours.
If you're planning crews for the rest of 2026, talk to our Melbourne team (who also look after Sydney and NSW), our Brisbane team or our Gold Coast team. See our 2026 labour hire rates for indicative pricing.
Frequently asked questions
How far behind is Australia on the Housing Accord target?
HIA said on 7 October 2026 that Australia is 94,980 dwellings behind the pace needed for the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes, based on ABS building activity data for the first two full years of the Accord.
How many homes are under construction in Australia right now?
ABS Building Activity data released on 7 October 2026 shows 248,733 dwellings were under construction at the end of the June quarter 2026, including 95,447 new houses. The figures are preliminary and may be revised.
Which states started the most new homes in the June quarter 2026?
Victoria recorded the most seasonally adjusted dwelling commencements in the June quarter 2026 with 16,239, ahead of Queensland with 11,671 and New South Wales with 11,252, according to the ABS.
Does a housing shortfall mean less work for trades?
Not in the short term. Commencements rose 7.0% in the June quarter 2026 and a large pipeline of homes is already under way, so builders still need crews to finish that work. The shortfall means demand for housing is higher than current output, while industry groups continue to point to trade and apprentice shortages.
How can labour hire help with a busy build pipeline?
Labour hire lets builders add licensed, vetted workers for peaks, stage changes and absences without permanent hiring. Dash Group can often have workers on site within 2 to 4 hours across Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and supports Sydney and NSW projects from its Melbourne office.
Sources: HIA, “Housing target shortfall an $11 billion black hole for states and territories” (7 October 2026); ABS, Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 (7 October 2026); HIA, “HIA Victoria not failing housing targets as badly as others is not success” (8 October 2026); Master Builders Australia, “Positive apprentice numbers overshadowed by low retention and market uncertainty” (15 September 2026, NCVER data); The Urban Developer, HIA Accord shortfall coverage (7 October 2026); Victoria’s Big Build, North East Link; GIICA, Victoria Park construction notice (September 2026); NSW Government, “Metro West contracts open next phase of major works” (January 2026).